Shaq’s Franchise-Saving Days are Over

The latest deal between the Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns, swapping Shaquille O’Neal for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks contains a lot of risk for Phoenix, and offers a new beginning for Miami.

From Miami’s perspective – this is a great deal. Someone is willing to take Shaq and his bloated contract - with two years at $20 million dollars per year remaining- off their hands. Shaq is probably not the ideal player to have on a young, losing team, and is reported to have had some run-ins with coach Pat Riley.

Shawn Marion can opt-out of his $16.4 million contract at the end of this season. If he does, then the Heat will have flexibility to sign an impact free agent like Elton Brand. If Marion chooses to re-sign with the Heat, then they will have an athletic veteran to compliment a young-but-injured superstar in Dwyane Wade. In either event, by virtue of their horrible season thus far, the Heat will likely have excellent position in the upcoming NBA draft, and the team can quickly go from cellar-dweller without much salary cap flexibility or depth to Eastern Conference contender.

From Phoenix’s perspective – this is a bold, risky and almost desperate move by rookie GM Steve Kerr. Despite reports that Marion is unhappy, the Phoenix Suns are an excellent team who sport the second-best record in the league and sit atop the ultra-competitive Western Conference. Phoenix’s thinking is probably something like this: the Suns have not been able to get over the hump in the Western Conference playoffs as currently constructed (thought they did add Grant Hill this year), and with an aging leader in Steve Nash, they might have to strike while the iron is hot. Also, with Utah, Golden State, Portland and the Lakers all improving, and LA’s acquisition of Pau Gasol, the Western Conference is even tougher this year.

Phoenix needs a defensive presence and toughness that (a vibrant, healthy and maybe younger) Shaq could provide. Shaq, however, is hobbling with hip bursitis and for the past two years has not been the dominant force the NBA has come to know throughout his illustrious career. Worth noting is that, Kurt Thomas, a player the Suns had last year, could have helped for $8 million per year but was let go for Luxury Tax avoidance.

The Suns, a running and shooting team that plays sporadic defense, might get a part-time, half-court player out of Shaq, much like what the Lakers received from Kareem Abdul-Jabbar at the end of his career. For this deal to work out for Phoenix, Shaq must be relatively healthy and willing to play the role of the third or fourth best player on his team – a role he has never had to assume. These are significant risks for a perennial playoff team on the verge of another deep playoff run.