NFL Quarterback Busts

Watching 2005 overall #1 pick Alex Smith get supplanted as the 49ers starting quarterback by J.T. O’Sullivan (a 6th round pick in 2002 NFL Draft) was another reminder of how difficult it is to draft in the NFL, especially QBs.

While the NFL draft is high profile and much is invested in the process, the success rate for quarterbacks is particularly spotty. In the 10 drafts since 1998 there have been 14 quarterbacks taken in the top-5, and in eight of 10 years a QB was taken first overall. The expectation for a top-5 pick, regardless of position, is for a meaningful impact within a few years and an extended, productive NFL career.

How have the top-pick QBs fared? While there have been some excellent players chosen (e.g., Payton Manning), there have also been absolute busts (e.g., Akili Smith) and some merely serviceable QBs (e.g., David Carr).

Results:
Good Picks (7) - Payton Manning (#1 - ’98), Donovan McNabb (#2 - ’99), Michael Vick (#1 - ’01), Carson Palmer (#1 - ’03), Eli Manning (#1 - ’04), Phillip Rivers (#4 - ’04), Vince Young (#3 - ’06)

Absolute Busts (3) - Ryan Leaf (#1 - ’98), Tim Couch (#1 - ’99), Akili Smith (#3 - ’99)

Serviceable Players (3) - David Carr (#1 - ’02), Joey Harrington (#3 - ‘02), Alex Smith (#1 - ’05)

TBD - JaMarcus Russell (#1 - ’07)

So why is the hit rate on QBs so low? There are a slew of hypotheses, including - QB is the most difficult position in football (and thus difficult to project), the NFL game is complicated and college systems don’t translate easily to NFL schemes, and players are forced into starting too soon - given the guaranteed money invested in top draft picks - thus stunting their development.

Quarterback is the most important position in football, and what is unlikely to change is that quarterback will be highly coveted and placed atop NFL draft boards. Drafter beware…